Saturday, August 30, 2025

Transference in Psychological Warfare

Subliminal in the mind of general audience was always something closely related to conspiracy theories, since it is often mentioned by those who allege manipulation in media, something most people deny since they keep consuming it. Here it is mentioned by scientists at the end of this philosophical definition of emotions, if we can agree psychology is already a science more than an observation of (a very complex side of human) nature (i do not agree with the definition itself).

On the other hand we have the purely physiological definition of emotions, as a make up of a number of neurotransmitters. We also know that emotions create memories. On a tridimensional model, we can create or retrieve a memory (or the beginning of it) at the intersection of specific concentrations of these three neurotransmitters. The more intense the emotions, the higher the concentration at intersection, the longer lasting and ease of retrieval of that memory.

The link between the two definitions is simple. The unconscious (mind) evaluation of a situation needs to be fast since an individual's fate may depend on the reaction time (No time for reasoning). Depending on the stimuli, the neurotransmitters are released in specific proportions.

Feeling or the sense of urgency is what remains on a short term from an emotion undealt with right away for various reasons.

Memory is what remains after the dimming of those feeling. Feelings can be recreated by accessing that memory that helps bringing up all the details. Both feelings and emotions are an evolutionary necessity.

An individual can remember when at ease what happened at a certain moment and deal with it if still possible or share the experience with the group.

Conscious evaluation of those feelings, sometimes by just sharing them and sometimes with the help of a therapist that is trained to help retrieving them helps putting them to rest or quenching them with .

We can see both emotions and feelings are part of the unconscious mind.

Freud was an Austrian Jewish therapist, founder of modern psychology though its branch psychoanalysis. During the late decades he was largely marginalized due to advent of chemical psychiatry.

Freud shared with us his undeniable highly successful therapy experiences though which he discovered one of the most important aspects of psychology, something named by him transference.

On short, by generalizing his definition, feelings undealt with can transfer from towards the initial object, situation or person to another, if somehow enough unconscious stimuli that lead initially to those feelings thus triggering the same combination of neurotransmitters can be recreated.

That may be evolutionary also because people while socializing may voluntarily share or helped to remember situations, how they dealt with, helping the members of the group to deal with similar situations if repetition is suspected possible.

However human socialization rules have changed very fast during the last millennia especially in differentiated societies (like with classes). People have learned to keep their experiences and thoughts to themselves more than in the past, this bringing to them a survival advantage. That evolutionary function of human behavior, sharing of memories, started to be suppressed, individuals accumulating undealt with emotional experiences.

Children of the civilized families let's say in Freud's Vienna often did not have an opportunity to share their intimate thoughts with their parents maybe because such sharings where considered inappropriate and sometimes they carried for a long time their negative experiences exactly with those who they normally were supposed to share, never having an opportunity to quench their feelings.

Why transference has such importance, not only in psychology but mostly in psychological warfare.

Emotions, feelings and even memories are uncontrollable.

By intentionally creating a combination of stimuli similar to those created by the sharing of an experience by an individual to the group the old fashion, ancestral way; using some elements of the experience, and adding some new information of their own, an interested entity may be able to create similar emotions and cancel or suppress the memory of those shared thoughts, substituting (transferring) in the mind of a person or even a large audience (in a subliminal or hidden, unrecognizable fashion) the shared situation with something else, related semantically, and with this suppressing or twisting any memory that can bring ideas that may be a disadvantage to them.

Transference also occurs frequently with showing in media of persons in power (TV presenters, politicians) postures, substituting for fathers and mothers, or intimate postures, substituting for lovers, postures that may also carry direct or hidden (subliminal), undeniable (by perception) messages.

Friday, August 22, 2025

FED Influence on the Illusion of Wealth

Total market capitalization is the sum of market capital of all listed companies. For the whole market the sum is $62.8 trillion as of July 1st. S&P 500 is a list of 500 companies that together represent 53.3 trillion as of today. We may say S&P 500 is quite representative for the whole market.

Today came Mr. Powel who is the head of an entity called Federal Reserve, a bank ("of last resort, created after the great recession to deal with financial crisis"), and said they are (only) thinking about an interest rate cut and the whole market went up some one and a half percent (everybody became 1.5% richer that is).

S&P 500 (man is so hard to write because of & sign) index is a weighed (by capital) average of all stock prices in the list and today it rose some 1.5%. Unfortunately i cannot find the value of the rise of the whole market cap of 62.8, all i could find was the current value of S&P, 53.3 though it should follow closely the index. (So yesterday market cap should have been something like 1.51% less).

Which means everybody who owns stock in the US market today is 1.51% richer. 62.8 trillions (last known value) by 1.5% = 945 billions. Almost one trillion have been added today to their capital out of nothing or Powel's words). One of the wonders of capitalism.

How is that possible. I mean, someone's 401k should not depend by daily market fluctuations, right?

Unfortunately, there's more to it. Biggest ten firms listed on S&P have market cap in the trillions, which count for about 40 % of the whole market cap, though their assets (real selling value) are hundreds of times less. As of today, the most "valuable" firm in the world is Nvidia, with 4.1 trillion market value which BTW rose today with 1.7%.

(As for AI, count the number of contradictions in the answers (of google AI) or the number of different answers at different times for the same questions).

It is all an illusion, if not a Ponzi scheme, with the biggest listed firms being over evaluated hundreds of times (through successive daily fluctuations over the years). However, it is there where retirement money or 401 k are for most Americans. Japanese money are in real estate or whatever that is. Land.

All firms traded on the stock market do loan money especially for short term purposes and the banks loan from FED. So how much money does FED lend to banks to have such an influence on the market?

In other words, FED deals with financial crisis every 5 or 10 years, rest of the time is in standby and manipulates the market mostly with rumors many times a year if not on daily basis. BTW, could or did they do anything about the dot.com bubble of Y2K?

I guess their only purpose is keep the market over inflated so people put more of their retirement money in it.

And yeah, instead of dot com bubble we are living nowadays the AI bubble led by Nvidia.

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Gaura neagră CCC (Cîțu, Ciucă și Ciolacu)

Spuneam ieri că am "descoperit" scrisoarea ascunsă a lui Poe din finanțele românești. Era chiar în văzul tuturor, pe site-ul BNR.

Discret, dar nu secret. adică ceva despre care nu a vorbit nimeni din presă niciodată (cu niște excepții puțin vizibile).

O gaură de 38 miliarde euro pe 6 luni (estimăm 76 miliarde euro anual), sub formă de servicii financiare pentru împrumuturi pe termen scurt (scadență sub un an) (adică rate, dobânzi și comisioane la împrumuturi pe termen scurt de 50 miliarde euro) de 38 miliarde timp de 6 luni.

Suma de 76 miliarde euro, calculată în lei, este comparabilă (mai mare) decât tot bugetul de stat, partea de venituri de 357 miliarde lei. De unde se acoperă? Din noi împrumuturi și posibil din bani fraudați din buget.

Dacă ei au avut opțiunea de a împrumuta pe termen lung în loc de termen scurt nu avem de unde să știm. Titluri pe termen scurt?

Plus cele 14 miliarde euro sau diferența între soldul la 1 ianuarie și 30 iunie proiectată pe tot anul, cheltuieli în valută în mare parte nejustificate ale guvernului.

Da și mie mi-a fost greu să cred când am văzut prima dată. Dobânzi și rate de 38 miliarde euro pe 6 luni pentru împrumuturi pe termen scurt de 50 miliarde. Asta în timp ce pentru restul datoriei externe de 162 miliarde pe termen lung, se plătesc dobânzi și rate de 10 miliarde și ceva (euro) în aceeași perioadă de 6 luni.

Bine, o mare parte din serviciul financiar pentru împrumuturile pe termen scurt sunt scadențele, împrumuturile pe termen scurt prin definiție se reînnoiesc complet la maxim un an.

Am găsit aici o sumă privind dobânzile, cumulate pe termen lung și scurt, 20 miliarde lei la 4 luni sau 60 pe un an dar suma totală de 255 miliarde pe 4 luni sau 765 pe un an nu se potrivește fiindcă ar însemna cheltuieli mult peste bugetul de cheltuieli de 499 miliarde anual, calculat cu un deficit deja de 142 miliarde (7%).

Calculată în euro, suma este 12 miliarde, puțin mai mare decât plata serviciilor pe termen lung. Să fie diferența de 2 miliarde dobânzi pe termen scurt? Asta ar însemna că dobânzile pe termen scurt la 50 miliarde ar fi mai mici procentual decât cele pe termen lung?

Cheltuielile cu aceste împrumuturi, așa numitul (în balanța BNR) Serviciu al datoriei externe pe termen scurt, adică dobânzile și ratele, pot să fie parțial acoperite prin falsificarea cheltuielilor bugetare de care scriu de atâta timp, ministerele primind sume mult mai mici decât cele stabilite în buget, falsificarea având loc și prin misteriosul titlul 51 VI Transferări (de fonduri) între unități ale administrației prezent mai mult sau mai puțin la aproape fiecare minister mare.

Dar dacă ne uităm la graficul (prin grija lui Florin Rau) al creșterii datoriei externe, vedem că ea a s-a menținut constantă în timpul lui Dăncilă, apoi a crescut începând din timpul guvernului Orban 1 și a explodat în timpul lui Cîțu și a rotativei Ciucă-Ciolacu, care azi iese la înaintare întâmpinare pe alte teme.

Din graficul lui Florin Rau mai vedem că datoria externă pe termen lung a crescut între 2019 și prezent cu 80 miliarde euro sau aproximativ 13,3 miliarde pe an și s-a dublat iar din site-ul BNR vedem că în 2025 avem 12 miliarde dobânzi și 14 miliarde cheltuieli administrative ceea ce împreună formează aproximativ 135 miliarde lei, sau cea mai mare parte din deficitul programat de 142 miliarde lei.

De fapt, Ciolacu este consecvent, fiindcă el a fost cel care, după falimentarea României, a încercat să aducă acest cuplu la putere, autoexcluzându-se prin semnarea în fals a unui acord internațional ne-necesar (primul ministru nu poate semna acorduri internaționale).