6:07 PM I know, it feels like strongly lingering democracy America got addicted to in the last 224 years, to the power of 56, however it is the same old caravan with the same 2 old clowns.
"We" want direct elections!
6:40 You want my opinion? Definetely not native English speaker. Ssstayin'? He is just playfully angry about (or simulates it cause he can't be angry on his own song he played so many times befoore). Soulful rock... what we know for sure is... it's got soul! I'll go with blues.
Saturday, February 24, 2024
February 24
Thursday, February 22, 2024
February 22
12:40 Capitalism 102.
NVidia stock grew today 16%, after it announced last quarter revenue went up 22%, believe it or not. As a result its capitalization rose today some 277 billion to almost 2 trillion and together with AMD it dragged the whole market up 2%, in a high flat type rally, continuing the spiraling inflation that started last November.
However, this does not reflect in dividends and it breaks the laws of the Universe. You cannot have 22% increase in revenue without that reflecting in profit and/or dividends which are kept symbolic (4 cents for an 800 dollars share). Yeah it is obvious they don't pay dividends, profit from price raising is much greater than that. Reinvesting? That should reflect in the assets.
As for how they pick the time for announcing quarterly revenue, that is an entirely different story. Or maybe the same.
I wouldn't have written this at this hour if i was not awakened @noon and kept awake after 3 hours of sleep (was up all night) by the people upstairs. One person, much lighter than those who generated the stumps left again on an electric bike, in the opposite direction as for the shorter distance to complex entrance, possibly through the park. It had his/her face covered with something black, like in a pretty obvious black face role playing.
3:30 PM. No i did not buy AMD stock last night. I bought a mini PC which was on sale to replace the old Lenovo AIO 300 Celeron i'm struggling with because of low speed.
5:40 As i said in past, i once took 2000 dollars of a credit card and opened an Ameritrade account and after a few days of doing transactions "on paper" that is imaginary, to see how skilled i am, i started buying and selling literally. I believe anybody can open an account with no or little money and do just that. It is exciting to say the least.
According to what i did on paper, i should have made 50-100 dollars a day. The are no fees per transaction, but there is a limit of 3 day trades (buying and selling the same stock within five days for accounts under 10000 dollars). If you had more than that you could do unlimited day trading.
How it works. You sit there, pick a stock and watch the price. When you think it is good for you, you click. You have of course to calculate the number of shares you buy cause they are not shown in dollars, however the software won't let you go over your capital LOL.
Or you can post an offer and the system will buy the stock for you at that price if it ever goes there. Of course you can only buy in the limit of the number of shares offered by a seller. The other way around. You could ask for a price and will be notified when your stock was sold. It is very very simple actually (there are more complicated types of transactions like short selling, etc.).
But of course it did not work out. I was usually picking stocks of dying pharma startups (a patent and a a few studies usually with up to 10 people) which are so many, with 100-200 millions capital which prices were fluctuating a lot, sometimes predictable by using the provided algorithms (free thinkorswim software provided by Ameritrade).
However. My feel was some entities with a bit more money than mine, or simply malevolent were starting to manipulate the price as soon as i got in.
How is that possible. You could open two Ameritrade accounts, make an offer on one and buy it with the other. After you raise the price enough, you reverse the operation. Is that simple. If you own a lot of that stock, the price will go higher and you can sell it all in the end. But that is just an example.
I believe Ameritrade will see what you did and shut your accounts. But you could do it with a friend or a few friends and they will not catch you.
But the big money don't use Ameritrade, they go and buy and sell on the floor or simply with supercomputers hooked on market's computers that use automated algorithms that can do thousands of transaction a second and those obviously are not limited in number of day trades LOL
There is an easy way to detect stock manipulation if you look at the volume of transactions. If the volume is low and the price goes up and down significantly that means there is a possibility of such manipulations.
I was looking today at the volume of trades of NVidia (sells with red, buys with green bars at the bottom of the graph). In the millions of shares, x800, that is a few billion dollars each time, especially at the beginning of the day. Today NVidia went up 277 billions in capital. More than that. Most of the price hike happened overnight during the so called after hours trading (or pre-market, after 4 PM Eastern time), when usually there is a very low trading volume. Capisci?
But does that capital exist or is available for NVidia to buy anything like supply or pay dividends or do anything with it? The only time when they could do this is when they first went public and sold that stock. After that, it caught a life of its own. There is absolutely no link between the corporation and its activity and that market capital, which became a Ponzi scheme. Pretty much like and stock on the stock market.
There is absolutely no link between economic activities of corporations that do not pay dividends and their stock traded at the stock exchanges. For that reason it is wrong to talk about how well the economy is doing based on market indices.
7:55 And yes, you could call your congressman and tell them to make high frequency computer algorithm AI trading illegal, after hours trading illegal, circular ownership illegal, buy back illegal. Bring back the traders on the floor. What it was made for. Make America Great Again.
However, this does not reflect in dividends and it breaks the laws of the Universe. You cannot have 22% increase in revenue without that reflecting in profit and/or dividends which are kept symbolic (4 cents for an 800 dollars share). Yeah it is obvious they don't pay dividends, profit from price raising is much greater than that. Reinvesting? That should reflect in the assets.
As for how they pick the time for announcing quarterly revenue, that is an entirely different story. Or maybe the same.
I wouldn't have written this at this hour if i was not awakened @noon and kept awake after 3 hours of sleep (was up all night) by the people upstairs. One person, much lighter than those who generated the stumps left again on an electric bike, in the opposite direction as for the shorter distance to complex entrance, possibly through the park. It had his/her face covered with something black, like in a pretty obvious black face role playing.
3:30 PM. No i did not buy AMD stock last night. I bought a mini PC which was on sale to replace the old Lenovo AIO 300 Celeron i'm struggling with because of low speed.
5:40 As i said in past, i once took 2000 dollars of a credit card and opened an Ameritrade account and after a few days of doing transactions "on paper" that is imaginary, to see how skilled i am, i started buying and selling literally. I believe anybody can open an account with no or little money and do just that. It is exciting to say the least.
According to what i did on paper, i should have made 50-100 dollars a day. The are no fees per transaction, but there is a limit of 3 day trades (buying and selling the same stock within five days for accounts under 10000 dollars). If you had more than that you could do unlimited day trading.
How it works. You sit there, pick a stock and watch the price. When you think it is good for you, you click. You have of course to calculate the number of shares you buy cause they are not shown in dollars, however the software won't let you go over your capital LOL.
Or you can post an offer and the system will buy the stock for you at that price if it ever goes there. Of course you can only buy in the limit of the number of shares offered by a seller. The other way around. You could ask for a price and will be notified when your stock was sold. It is very very simple actually (there are more complicated types of transactions like short selling, etc.).
But of course it did not work out. I was usually picking stocks of dying pharma startups (a patent and a a few studies usually with up to 10 people) which are so many, with 100-200 millions capital which prices were fluctuating a lot, sometimes predictable by using the provided algorithms (free thinkorswim software provided by Ameritrade).
However. My feel was some entities with a bit more money than mine, or simply malevolent were starting to manipulate the price as soon as i got in.
How is that possible. You could open two Ameritrade accounts, make an offer on one and buy it with the other. After you raise the price enough, you reverse the operation. Is that simple. If you own a lot of that stock, the price will go higher and you can sell it all in the end. But that is just an example.
I believe Ameritrade will see what you did and shut your accounts. But you could do it with a friend or a few friends and they will not catch you.
But the big money don't use Ameritrade, they go and buy and sell on the floor or simply with supercomputers hooked on market's computers that use automated algorithms that can do thousands of transaction a second and those obviously are not limited in number of day trades LOL
There is an easy way to detect stock manipulation if you look at the volume of transactions. If the volume is low and the price goes up and down significantly that means there is a possibility of such manipulations.
I was looking today at the volume of trades of NVidia (sells with red, buys with green bars at the bottom of the graph). In the millions of shares, x800, that is a few billion dollars each time, especially at the beginning of the day. Today NVidia went up 277 billions in capital. More than that. Most of the price hike happened overnight during the so called after hours trading (or pre-market, after 4 PM Eastern time), when usually there is a very low trading volume. Capisci?
But does that capital exist or is available for NVidia to buy anything like supply or pay dividends or do anything with it? The only time when they could do this is when they first went public and sold that stock. After that, it caught a life of its own. There is absolutely no link between the corporation and its activity and that market capital, which became a Ponzi scheme. Pretty much like and stock on the stock market.
There is absolutely no link between economic activities of corporations that do not pay dividends and their stock traded at the stock exchanges. For that reason it is wrong to talk about how well the economy is doing based on market indices.
7:55 And yes, you could call your congressman and tell them to make high frequency computer algorithm AI trading illegal, after hours trading illegal, circular ownership illegal, buy back illegal. Bring back the traders on the floor. What it was made for. Make America Great Again.
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
February 20
4:12 PM Microsoft has an intrinsic value of 275 billion and its stock value is over 3 trillion which means 91.66% of it is speculative.
Do people buy it for dividends or only for financial (speculative profit)?
Last year Microsoft payed under 3 dollars dividends per 400 dollar share (as of today). However its share value rose from 250 to 400 within the passed year. So there goes the answer.
Who owns Microsoft? I know Angela has got some on her 401k so i assume it's retirement funds. I did some searches and i ran into the old problem. Vanguard and Black Rock, top shareholders for Microsoft.
Cause if i look at Vanguard, i see they own each other which confuses the heck out of me. That is Microsoft owns 250 billion dollars of Vanguard while Vanguard owns 268 billion dollars of Microsoft.
Capisci?
It is the old problem of circular ownership which on a suspicion i tried to solve during a time internet and sites and my computers were much slower. But i think i could tackle it one of these days, revive an abandoned project and build a spreadsheet with the cross ownership of major corporations which will take some time but i promise the results will be spectacular.
Yes my suspicion is they all own each other to the point there is no real money in the system. So it's not just a bubble, it's a double bubble.
8:50 One more thing aroused in my mind tonight. If Microsoft's intrinsic value (assets - liabilities) is 275 and it owns 250 of Vanguard which are assets, than what is left of Microsoft?
9:10 And of course the extreme form of circular ownership which is own ownership. In other words public companies use their money (wondering what money, profit maybe? hopefully not loans) to buy (back) their own shares, reducing the number of shareholders. There must have been a reason it was not legal until 1982.
11:52 Astea sunt absolventele Academiei de Poliție din România? Și de ce au roșu alb verde pe față și arată toate ca niște modele de tiktok?
Last year Microsoft payed under 3 dollars dividends per 400 dollar share (as of today). However its share value rose from 250 to 400 within the passed year. So there goes the answer.
Who owns Microsoft? I know Angela has got some on her 401k so i assume it's retirement funds. I did some searches and i ran into the old problem. Vanguard and Black Rock, top shareholders for Microsoft.
Cause if i look at Vanguard, i see they own each other which confuses the heck out of me. That is Microsoft owns 250 billion dollars of Vanguard while Vanguard owns 268 billion dollars of Microsoft.
Capisci?
It is the old problem of circular ownership which on a suspicion i tried to solve during a time internet and sites and my computers were much slower. But i think i could tackle it one of these days, revive an abandoned project and build a spreadsheet with the cross ownership of major corporations which will take some time but i promise the results will be spectacular.
Yes my suspicion is they all own each other to the point there is no real money in the system. So it's not just a bubble, it's a double bubble.
8:50 One more thing aroused in my mind tonight. If Microsoft's intrinsic value (assets - liabilities) is 275 and it owns 250 of Vanguard which are assets, than what is left of Microsoft?
9:10 And of course the extreme form of circular ownership which is own ownership. In other words public companies use their money (wondering what money, profit maybe? hopefully not loans) to buy (back) their own shares, reducing the number of shareholders. There must have been a reason it was not legal until 1982.
11:52 Astea sunt absolventele Academiei de Poliție din România? Și de ce au roșu alb verde pe față și arată toate ca niște modele de tiktok?
Monday, February 19, 2024
February 19
12:50 Murder on the Dance Floor
10:20 I recently wrote about the speculations on stock market and the difference between total "value" of a stock and the real or intrinsic value of that stock. I also remember relatively recently there has been an announcement saying Microsoft has passed the three trillion threshold.
Then it came the shocking news of the amount of fining of Trump in a civil lawsuit.
BTW it always puzzled me since the day i came to the US and saw the news about civil case of OJ Simpson. I mean, the family has been awarded a large sum of money based on the claim he killed her though he was acquitted in the parallel criminal trial.
All civil lawsuits give money rewards for the damaged part. In the case of Trump, it was for the intentional super evaluation of his assets in order to get loans, and there is a name for it. Fraud. (though i don't see where the damage was for the State of New York).
Fraud is a crime. How come the prosecutor and the judge and us all can ignore the fact crimes have been committed?
Everybody knows. There is no sign of equality between the intrinsic value of a stock and the sum of the shares of that stock. I am not sure exactly what that intrinsic value means. Ok so it cannot be greater than assets. What is the current value of the assets of Facebook (meat whatever)?
It is about the same value it went 20% up that day. So only 1/5 (or less) of its stock value is covered by assets. Same goes for Apple, google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft etc..
As you can see, the difference between assets (minus liabilities whatever) and the market value is what they call a bubble. Only the five the magnificent 7 mentioned above account for a seven trillion or more bubble.
So we can see stock market is no much different than a Ponzi scheme. People buy shares hoping they will go up and one day they could sell them to other people for a profit. It is called speculation. But it is all legal and institutionalized while Ponzi schemes are not.
But if tomorrow for some reason a large enough number of holders would decide to sell all at a time (probably) around 10% of any of the seven, the whole thing will come crumbling down (bubble will burst).
The opposite is happening in Japan. Do you know where the difference is coming from? All of your Toyotas and Hondas and Nissans and Subarus etc. etc. etc......
Then it came the shocking news of the amount of fining of Trump in a civil lawsuit.
BTW it always puzzled me since the day i came to the US and saw the news about civil case of OJ Simpson. I mean, the family has been awarded a large sum of money based on the claim he killed her though he was acquitted in the parallel criminal trial.
All civil lawsuits give money rewards for the damaged part. In the case of Trump, it was for the intentional super evaluation of his assets in order to get loans, and there is a name for it. Fraud. (though i don't see where the damage was for the State of New York).
Fraud is a crime. How come the prosecutor and the judge and us all can ignore the fact crimes have been committed?
Everybody knows. There is no sign of equality between the intrinsic value of a stock and the sum of the shares of that stock. I am not sure exactly what that intrinsic value means. Ok so it cannot be greater than assets. What is the current value of the assets of Facebook (meat whatever)?
It is about the same value it went 20% up that day. So only 1/5 (or less) of its stock value is covered by assets. Same goes for Apple, google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft etc..
As you can see, the difference between assets (minus liabilities whatever) and the market value is what they call a bubble. Only the five the magnificent 7 mentioned above account for a seven trillion or more bubble.
So we can see stock market is no much different than a Ponzi scheme. People buy shares hoping they will go up and one day they could sell them to other people for a profit. It is called speculation. But it is all legal and institutionalized while Ponzi schemes are not.
But if tomorrow for some reason a large enough number of holders would decide to sell all at a time (probably) around 10% of any of the seven, the whole thing will come crumbling down (bubble will burst).
The opposite is happening in Japan. Do you know where the difference is coming from? All of your Toyotas and Hondas and Nissans and Subarus etc. etc. etc......